Asia Markets Open: Bitcoin Recovers While Polymarket Traders Eye Imminent U.S. Shutdown Resolution

Bitcoin Rebounds as Polymarket Bets on Swift End to U.S. Shutdown

BTC climbs above $106K, ETH surges 7% amid bipartisan Senate funding deal

Cryptocurrencies rallied overnight as traders bet that the U.S. government shutdown will soon end, boosting risk appetite and lifting major digital assets.

Bitcoin (BTC) rose 4.2% to $106,269, while Ether (ETH) jumped 7.4% to $3,643, according to CoinDesk data, recovering some of last week’s losses as macro uncertainty eased and liquidity returned to the market.

On Polymarket, the odds of the government reopening by November 12 surged after Senate negotiators reached a bipartisan deal late Sunday. The agreement funds federal operations through January 30, reverses recent layoffs, and guarantees a December vote on extending Affordable Care Act tax credits — provisions that secured at least eight Democratic votes.

The shift marked a sharp reversal in market sentiment. Just 24 hours earlier, traders had assigned a 63% probability that the shutdown would extend past November 16 into Thanksgiving. Following the deal, President Trump told reporters, “We’re getting close to the shutdown ending,” reinforcing expectations of a mid-week resolution.

Market and Economic Impact

While some disruptions remain — including a 4% reduction in FAA flights causing thousands of cancellations and a temporary halt to USDA food-stamp payments — markets are signaling relief after weeks of paralysis. Equities and crypto alike are reflecting the anticipated return of government spending and normalized liquidity.

However, regulatory timelines continue to affect crypto-specific expectations. Traders have scaled back forecasts for a Cardano (ADA) ETF approval by year-end. Just a month ago, the probability stood at 90%, but it has now dropped to 38%, as SEC bandwidth remains limited after the shutdown.

Market Snapshot

BTC: +4.2% to $106,269 — traders are pricing in a near-term resolution to the government funding gap.
ETH: +7.4% to $3,643 — outperforming majors as easing uncertainty fuels short-covering and rotation into higher-beta crypto assets.

The rebound underscores how closely crypto markets remain tied to macro and political developments, with sentiment-sensitive assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum reacting quickly to news of fiscal resolution.