Forget Uptober—Is Bitcoin Setting Up for a “NovemBull”?

Bitcoin’s ‘Moonvember’ Reputation Fades Under Closer Scrutiny

November 3, 2025

November has long held a mythical status among Bitcoin traders. The month’s strong historical rallies even earned it the nickname “Moonvember”, a meme celebrating what many believe to be Bitcoin’s most bullish period of the year. But a closer look at the data suggests that the legend doesn’t quite match reality.

According to CoinGlass’s Bitcoin Monthly Returns heat map, Bitcoin’s average (mean) November return from 2013 to 2025 sits at a remarkable 42.5%, the highest of any month and well ahead of October’s “Uptober” average of +19.9%.

However, that figure is heavily skewed by one extraordinary event — November 2013, when Bitcoin surged more than 449% during the early bull market. Removing that single outlier drastically changes the picture: the median November return drops to just 8.8%, offering a far more realistic snapshot of typical performance.

That distinction between mean and median is key. While the mean captures all values, it can be distorted by outliers. The median, by contrast, better reflects a “normal” November across different market cycles.

The heat map reveals that November’s track record is mixed — a month of both powerful rallies and painful corrections:

• 2018: –36.6%
• 2019: –17.3%
• 2021: –7.1%
• 2022: –16.2%
• 2020: +43.0%
• 2024: +37.3%
• 2025: +0.5%

While those standout years helped cement November’s bullish reputation, the deep losses that followed others remind traders that seasonality is a historical tendency, not a trading signal.

Even October — another seasonally strong month — shows more consistent results, with an average gain of 19.9% and a median of 14.7%, suggesting it may be the steadier performer.

Ultimately, while “Moonvember” remains a catchy meme, seasoned traders know that markets move on momentum, liquidity, and macro catalysts — not the calendar.

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