BTC Price Outlook: What the Charts Reveal After Powell’s Hawkish Fed Comments

Bitcoin Holds Ground Above $109K Despite Powell’s Hawkish Remarks

Bitcoin (BTC) slipped lower on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish comments dampened expectations for another rate cut in December, but the cryptocurrency continues to defend key technical support levels.

BTC briefly dipped to $109,250 — near its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) — before rebounding to around $111,000 at press time. The recovery suggests buyers remain active near long-term support, even as broader sentiment turns cautious.

Holding above the 200-day SMA remains crucial for maintaining the long-term bullish structure. However, analysts caution that bitcoin’s continued position below the Ichimoku cloud signals persistent short-term weakness. Extended trading below that range could increase the probability of a breakdown under $109,000, opening the door to a retest of the psychologically significant $100,000 zone.

The last time BTC traded below both the cloud and the 200-day SMA, in February, the move triggered a sharper selloff toward $75,000.

Macro indicators also support a defensive stance. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) recently posted a bullish crossover between its 50- and 100-day moving averages — often a precursor to further strength — while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed back above 4%. Both developments tend to weigh on risk assets such as bitcoin.

Options market activity underscores that cautious tone. Data from Amberdata show BTC put options on Deribit are trading at a 4%–5% implied volatility premium over calls, reflecting traders’ preference for downside protection amid policy uncertainty.

For bullish sentiment to return, bitcoin would need a decisive breakout above the Ichimoku cloud around $116,000. Until then, traders expect continued range-bound movement and elevated volatility as markets adjust to the Fed’s shifting tone.