Coinbase Poised for Strong Q3, Yet Analysts Remain Split on What Comes Next

Analysts Divided Ahead of Coinbase Q3 Earnings as Debate Over Base, Deribit, and Margins Deepens

Wall Street expects a strong third quarter for Coinbase, but opinions diverge sharply on profitability and long-term catalysts.

Coinbase (COIN) will report third-quarter earnings on Thursday after the market close, with most analysts expecting the crypto exchange to top revenue forecasts — even as views differ on what comes next.

According to FactSet estimates, Coinbase is projected to post earnings per share (EPS) of $1.14, up sharply from $0.28 a year earlier, on $1.8 billion in revenue, compared with $1.2 billion in Q3 2024.

While firms such as JPMorgan, Barclays, and Compass Point agree on strong trends in USDC yields, blockchain rewards, and trading volumes, their assessments of Coinbase’s profitability and long-term prospects diverge.

JPMorgan’s Kenneth Worthington is the most optimistic, raising Coinbase to Overweight with a $404 price target for December 2026. He believes a potential Base token could be transformative — estimating a $12 billion to $34 billion market cap, with Coinbase’s stake worth up to $42 per share in added value. Worthington also sees additional upside from Coinbase’s decision to limit USDC yield rewards to Coinbase One subscribers, which could add roughly $1 per share in annual earnings.

Barclays’ Benjamin Budish, who maintains an Equal Weight rating, expects strong results but a more moderate outlook. He forecasts adjusted EBITDA 6% above consensus, fueled by retail trading recovery and higher interest income from USDC balances. Budish projects $1.05 billion in transaction revenue and $771 million from subscriptions and services — both ahead of expectations — yet trimmed his price target to $361, citing multiple compression in broader markets.

Compass Point’s Ed Engel, however, remains cautious. Retaining a Sell rating, he warned that Coinbase’s shift toward lower-margin subscription revenue could squeeze profits over time. Engel highlighted that USDC and staking payouts eat into margins and argued that retail activity slowed through the quarter. He also questioned the payoff from Coinbase’s Deribit acquisition, noting increased competition from regulated U.S. venues like CBOE.

Engel offered no comment on the potential Base token, suggesting limited conviction in JPMorgan’s thesis.

Despite the differences, all three analysts agree that USDC has become a critical profit driver for Coinbase. The partnership with Circle (CRCL) continues to underpin stablecoin-related income, though analysts disagree on how much of that yield Coinbase can retain as it pushes users toward paid tiers.

As Coinbase deepens its focus on subscriptions, infrastructure, and derivatives, Thursday’s report will not only measure its Q3 performance — it may also determine which vision of the company’s future proves correct.