Saylor’s $18B Drawdown May Be Nearing a Bottom, Says 10X Research

MicroStrategy’s $18B Drawdown May Be Nearing a Bottom, Says 10x Research

MicroStrategy (MSTR) has lost nearly $18 billion in market value over recent months as the premium over its bitcoin (BTC $109,992.98) holdings collapsed and investor enthusiasm waned. But according to 10x Research’s Markus Thielen, the stock could be nearing a turning point.

In a report published Wednesday, Thielen — who had previously maintained a bearish outlook — said that several upcoming catalysts could trigger a reversal in sentiment as early as this week. Chief among them is the company’s third-quarter earnings, due Thursday, which could reignite speculation about potential S&P 500 index inclusion.

“At today’s price, with the NAV premium largely gone, volatility rising, and the potential catalyst of strong Q3 earnings, we see MicroStrategy as attractive at current levels,” Thielen wrote. “The stock now offers better value than bitcoin itself.”

MicroStrategy shares have dropped below $280, down another 1.8% on Wednesday, leaving its market capitalization barely above the value of the bitcoin held on its balance sheet. That’s a stark contrast to late 2024, when speculative enthusiasm drove the company’s shares well above its underlying assets.

Despite a 40% slide since July, Thielen said sentiment now appears “washed out,” creating conditions for a rebound. He estimates the company will post around $3.6 billion in profit from mark-to-market gains on its bitcoin holdings this quarter.

A strong report, Thielen noted, could revive the long-standing debate over MicroStrategy’s eligibility for S&P 500 inclusion, which he now assigns a 60–70% probability of happening by December.

Such an inclusion could attract up to $28 billion in passive and active fund inflows, potentially setting up MSTR for a rally similar to those seen in Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD) after their additions to the benchmark index.