How Will BTC, ETH, XRP, and SOL React to the Upcoming U.S. Inflation Report?

Crypto Markets Brace for September CPI; Ether Likely to See Larger Swings Than Bitcoin

Crypto traders are focusing on September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), set for release Friday, as the first major economic data point following the U.S. government shutdown. According to FactSet, the CPI is expected to show a 3.1% year-over-year rise, the highest in 18 months, up from 2.9% in August. On a monthly basis, inflation is projected to increase 0.4%, matching the prior month.

Core Inflation and Fed Outlook

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is forecast to rise 3.1% YoY for the third consecutive month, with a 0.3% monthly gain. Economists generally expect the data will not deter the Federal Reserve from a 25 basis point rate cut next week.

Analysts at ING noted that a hotter-than-expected print could strengthen the dollar, potentially limiting crypto gains, while a softer CPI could trigger a risk-on reaction, according to Zerocap.

Expected Crypto Volatility

Options data suggest ether (ETH) may see moves of ±2.9%, outpacing Bitcoin’s (BTC) ±1.4%. XRP and Solana implied volatility points to 4.7% and 4% expected 24-hour moves, respectively. While these figures signal potential swings, they do not indicate market direction.

Technical Signals

Markus Thielen of 10x Research noted Bitcoin shows early bullish stochastic divergence, suggesting downside momentum may be easing and a short-term recovery could be possible.

Traders will watch closely as the CPI release may ignite volatility, with high-beta altcoins like ether likely to react more sharply than Bitcoin.