Despite 5% Losses in ETH, XRP, and SOL, Bitcoin Bulls Still Target $140K by Month’s End

Bitcoin Pauses at $122K as Optimism Persists for $140K Surge
8/10/2025

Bitcoin is holding near $122,000 in Wednesday’s Asian trading hours after hitting a record high of $126,200 earlier this week. Despite the recent pullback, some analysts maintain a bullish outlook, projecting a potential climb to $140,000 by the end of October.

Economist Timothy Peterson highlighted on X that Bitcoin has roughly a 50% probability of reaching $140K this month, based on simulations using a decade of historical data. At the same time, he notes a 43% chance BTC could close below $136K.

The cryptocurrency has gained nearly 10% since the start of October, driven by record U.S.-listed ETF inflows and a substantial exodus of coins from centralized exchanges. Exchange balances have dropped to a six-year low of 2.83 million BTC, with 170,000 coins withdrawn in the past month alone—trends that continue to limit downside risk.

U.S.-listed spot ETFs have added over $60 billion since approvals in January 2024, including $3.2 billion last week, marking one of the largest weekly inflows on record. Market participants note that the technical backdrop, combined with shrinking supply, favors further upside as “Uptober” momentum plays out.

“Options markets are pricing in a roughly 5% chance for another 10% rally in the S&P 500 into year-end, which supports BTC bulls,” said Augustine Fan, head of insights at SignalPlus. “Minimal short liquidation on the recent gap-up suggests participants remain underweight with low risk exposure.”

However, risks remain. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has delayed key economic data, including inflation prints, leaving the Fed’s policy trajectory uncertain. Market observers warn that upcoming FOMC decisions and corporate earnings could either extend the rally or trigger a short-term correction.

Profit-taking has already led to a slight market pullback, with Bitcoin down over 2% in the last 24 hours. The broader crypto market has also felt pressure, dragging XRP, Solana (SOL), Ether (ETH), and Cardano (ADA) down as much as 7%. BNB Chain’s BNB bucked the trend, gaining 1.5% amid renewed ecosystem activity.

For now, analysts see $125,000 as a critical battle line for Bitcoin. ETF-driven demand and whale withdrawals provide support, but upcoming macroeconomic updates may dictate the next major move.