Bitcoin Whales on Paper Profits of $10.1B: Are They Poised to Cash Out?

Bitcoin’s surge to record levels has left short-term holder (STH) whales — those holding more than 1,000 BTC acquired in the past five months — sitting on roughly $10.1 billion in paper gains, according to CryptoQuant data.

These “weak hands” are usually the first to sell when volatility spikes. Just weeks ago, the same group was underwater after late-September losses. Now, fueled by ETF inflows, a softer U.S. dollar, and the U.S. government shutdown backdrop, their profits have expanded dramatically.

The potential for profit-taking is tangible: $5.7 billion already moved from STH wallets into exchanges earlier this week, signaling that selling pressure is active rather than hypothetical.

This cycle has also seen significant hand-offs between long-term holders (LTHs) and STHs. Checkonchain reports that 3.45 million BTC have shifted from LTH wallets to STHs — a transfer wave comparable to 2016–17, but at prices roughly 100 times higher.

Whether this transfer caps momentum or fuels continued market churn depends on upcoming demand. While the market may absorb some profit-taking, a large-scale sell-off by STH whales could quickly convert these $10.1 billion in unrealized gains into realized pressure, testing Bitcoin’s near-term highs.