Bitcoin Poised for Swift Move Above $135K, Says Standard Chartered

Bitcoin Eyes $135K and Beyond as ETF Flows and Macro Risks Drive Momentum

Bitcoin (BTC) surged roughly 13% this week, reaching $124,951 on Friday and approaching its previous record near $124,500. Analysts at Standard Chartered see a potential short-term move to $135,000, with a year-end target of $200,000.

ETF Investor Rotation Boosts BTC
Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, highlighted a possible rotation of capital from gold ETFs into Bitcoin. While gold ETFs have recently outperformed, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows are expected to accelerate. Of the $58 billion in total BTC ETF inflows, $23 billion came in 2025, including over $2.25 billion this week (excluding Friday). Kendrick projects an additional $20 billion could flow in before year-end, reinforcing the bullish outlook.

U.S. Government Shutdown as a Bullish Catalyst
Kendrick noted that the current U.S. government shutdown is exerting more influence on markets than previous shutdowns. Unlike the 2018–2019 shutdown, BTC is now closely correlated with U.S. government risk, measured via Treasury term premiums. This connection suggests the ongoing uncertainty is acting as a bullish driver for Bitcoin.

Prediction market data from Polymarket indicates a 60% chance that the shutdown lasts 10–29 days, a period Kendrick expects Bitcoin to continue rising.

Technical Snapshot
With BTC approaching prior all-time highs, a short-term target of $135,000 appears achievable. Combined with ETF inflows and macro-driven market factors, Bitcoin’s momentum could carry the largest cryptocurrency toward Kendrick’s $200,000 year-end forecast.