Key Q4 Indicators: BTC Seasonal Patterns, XRP vs. BTC, DXY Moves, Nvidia, and Beyond

As we enter the final quarter of 2025, several charts and indicators are offering crucial guidance for crypto traders navigating a volatile market environment.

Bullish Seasonal Trends

Historically, Q4 has been the strongest period for Bitcoin and Ether. Since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged an 85% gain in the last quarter of the year, with November typically the most bullish month (+46%) and October also strong (+21%), according to Coinglass.

Ether also tends to perform well in Q4, though its most pronounced seasonal gains historically occur in Q1. With BTC trading near $109,418 and ETH around $4,022, traders are weighing historical trends against recent short-term weakness.

Bitcoin Support Levels

Bitcoin’s 5% decline this week aligns with bearish technical signals, testing August lows near $107,300. If that level fails, attention shifts to the 200-day SMA at $104,200.

Long-term bulls may take comfort in the 50-week SMA, currently around $98,900, which has consistently provided support and ended corrective pullbacks during the ongoing bull cycle that began in early 2023. Traders should monitor this level closely for broader market direction.

XRP/BTC Compression and Potential Breakout

XRP has surged 32% in 2025, but against Bitcoin, it remains trapped in a multi-year sideways range. The XRP/BTC pair has been confined within low-volatility compression since early 2021.

Recent tests near the upper boundary of this range suggest bulls are gaining ground. A decisive breakout could trigger a strong relative rally for XRP as the accumulated energy from this prolonged squeeze is released.

SMST ETF: Signals for BTC and MSTR

The Defiance Daily Target 2x Short MSTR ETF (SMST) has climbed to a five-month high of $35.65, forming an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern — typically signaling a potential bullish reversal for the ETF itself.

Since SMST is short MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock, which holds 639,835 BTC, this pattern hints at potential downside risk for both MSTR and Bitcoin if the ETF continues to gain.

Dollar Index: Double Bottom in Play

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has gained ground, establishing a double bottom around 96.30. A move above 100.26 would confirm the breakout, opening the path toward 104.00.

Conversely, a drop below 96.00 could trigger renewed risk-taking in markets, including crypto.

Nvidia: Risk-On Barometer

Nvidia (NVDA), a key bellwether for risk assets, continues to test the upper boundary of a broadening channel dating back to mid-2024. The rally has stalled since late July, suggesting potential bullish exhaustion.

A reversal here could signal a risk-off phase across global markets, which may weigh on cryptocurrencies as investors reassess exposure.

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