Gold vs. Bitcoin: Tracking Returns Through the Money Supply Lens

Gold vs. Bitcoin: Tracking Performance Relative to Money Supply

Gold has posted a strong 38% gain year-to-date in 2025, outpacing bitcoin’s 23% advance. However, when adjusted for U.S. money supply (M2), gold has yet to surpass levels seen in 2011, highlighting its long-term role as a stable hedge rather than a high-growth asset.

Bitcoin, in contrast, has consistently reached record highs relative to M2 during each bull cycle, including last month’s all-time nominal and relative highs. This contrast illustrates how traditional and digital assets behave differently amid rapid monetary expansion.

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