Bitcoin Set for an “Uptober” Surge, Analyst Says, Regardless of FOMC Outcome

Bitcoin Holds Above $116K as Analysts Anticipate “Uptober” Rally – 17/9/2025

Bitcoin (BTC) traded around $116,236 as of 14:04 UTC on Sept. 17, climbing to an intraday high of $117,317 earlier in the session. The cryptocurrency has risen roughly 1% over the past 24 hours, holding key support as investors await the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, widely expected to include a 25-basis-point rate cut.

Two leading crypto analysts point to both seasonal trends and BTC’s relative underperformance versus gold and the S&P 500 as bullish indicators.

Dean Crypto Trades noted that bitcoin is only about 7% above its post-election local peak, compared with a 9% gain for the S&P 500 and a 36% surge for gold. He suggested that BTC’s compressed price action could set the stage for its next significant move, potentially forming a “lower high” before breaking out. Ether (ETH) could follow suit once it surpasses $5,000 and enters a price discovery phase.

Meanwhile, Lark Davis highlighted bitcoin’s historical performance around September FOMC meetings. Since 2020, every September Fed decision—excluding the 2022 bear market—has preceded a strong BTC rally. Davis emphasized that this pattern is driven more by seasonal dynamics than the rate decision itself, positioning BTC for the so-called “Uptober” rally.

Market and Technical Overview

CoinDesk Research data shows BTC consolidating between $116,000–$116,500 after the intraday high of $117,317. A brief breakout attempt around 12:34 UTC pushed BTC to $116,551 on increased volume, confirming a consolidation-breakout pattern, though gains were modest. Current support sits near $116,400, with resistance at $117,300.

Over the past month, bitcoin has climbed from lows near $108,000 in late August to recent highs above $117,000. While the overall trend remains upward, short-term consolidation suggests the market is pausing before its next move.

Altcoins are benefiting from BTC’s range-bound trading. Bitcoin dominance has dropped to 57%, the lowest since January, signaling capital rotation into more speculative tokens. The average crypto relative strength index (RSI) of 45.47 indicates several altcoins are approaching oversold conditions, setting the stage for potential gains. Historical BTC dominance lows of 33% in 2017 and 40% in 2021 suggest altcoins could still run before investors return to bitcoin, particularly if BTC tests record highs above $124,000.

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