Morning Briefing: Bitcoin Holds $115K, Asia Markets Questioned for Stability

Bitcoin Holds $115K as Analysts Clash Over Market Recovery

Bitcoin (BTC) traded just above $115,000 in Asia Tuesday morning, retreating slightly after a strong start to the week. The pullback follows a wave of inflows into U.S. spot ETFs and optimism that the Federal Reserve will cut rates next week, leaving traders debating whether the rally is built on solid foundations or fragile momentum after last week’s CPI-driven jitters.

Research desks are split. Glassnode’s weekly report emphasizes caution. While ETF inflows jumped nearly 200% last week and futures open interest increased, the underlying spot market remains weak.

According to Glassnode, buying conviction is shallow, funding rates have softened, and profit-taking is rising, with over 92% of BTC supply currently in profit. Options traders have also reduced downside hedges, pushing volatility spreads lower—a setup that could leave the market exposed if risk returns. Essentially, ETFs and futures are supporting the rally, but without stronger spot demand, BTC remains vulnerable.

On the other hand, QCP takes a bullish view. The Singapore-based desk sees crypto “back on track” following CPI data that confirmed tariff-driven inflation without major surprises. They point to five consecutive days of substantial BTC ETF inflows, ETH’s largest inflows in two weeks, and resilience in XRP and SOL despite delays in other ETFs.

Traders are interpreting regulatory postponements as procedural rather than restrictive. With the Altcoin Season Index at a 90-day high, QCP views BTC consolidation above $115K as a springboard for rotation into higher-beta assets.

The contrasting perspectives highlight the current battleground near $115K–$116K. Glassnode labels it fragile optimism; QCP sees momentum. The market’s near-term direction may depend on whether ETF inflows continue to offset profit-taking in the coming weeks.

Market Snapshot

• BTC: Consolidating near $115K as traders adjust positions ahead of anticipated Fed policy moves; institutional demand via spot ETFs provides support.
• ETH: Trading around $4,500, buoyed by institutional flows, exchange outflows, and favorable technical setups.
• Gold: Holding near record highs, supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts, inflation concerns, and safe-haven demand; tempered slightly by profit-taking and a stronger U.S. dollar.
• Nikkei 225: Surged past 45,000 Monday, leading Asia-Pacific gains on upbeat U.S.-China trade talks and TikTok divestment plans.
• S&P 500: Rose 0.5% to close above 6,600 Monday, lifted by positive trade developments and anticipation of the Fed meeting.

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