As Trump’s Tariffs Fuel a Trade War, Derive’s Onchain Options Data Shows the Likelihood of Bitcoin Falling to $75K Has Doubled

The chance of Bitcoin (BTC) falling to $75,000 by March 28 has surged to 22%, a significant increase from the 10% probability seen just a week ago, as a fresh wave of trade tensions between the U.S. and its top trading partners raises concerns over inflationary pressures in the global economy, Derive.xyz’s on-chain options data shows.

The increase in probability comes as President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Mexican, Canadian, and Chinese imports could lead to higher inflation, making it more difficult for central banks, including the Federal Reserve, to lower interest rates. According to Derive, the tariffs, including 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada, and 10% on Chinese goods, are expected to affect investor sentiment, particularly in riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin has already fallen by 11% over the last four days, dropping to $93,700. Ethereum (ETH) has also struggled, falling below $2,200, marking its lowest level since early August. Some technical analysts believe BTC could be on track to form a double top reversal, potentially triggering a move towards $75,000.

Despite the short-term volatility, many in the crypto space remain optimistic. Former BitMEX CEO and Maelstrom’s Chief Investment Officer Arthur Hayes suggested that Bitcoin may first drop to around $75,000 before entering another bull run.

Looking at the broader picture, Derive points to positive developments in the crypto industry, including active spot ETF filings for assets like DOGE, SOL, XRP, and LTC by major players such as Bitwise and Grayscale. If approved by the SEC, these ETFs could boost institutional confidence in the crypto market, leading to increased capital flows and higher prices.

Andre Dragosch of Bitwise also believes that the Fed will likely step in to prevent further economic tightening. “Eventually, the Fed will likely need to reintroduce quantitative easing to curb the dollar’s strength and prevent further deceleration in global economic growth,” Dragosch stated.