Top Polymarket Bettor Places Wager on 50bps Fed Cut

Polymarket’s Top Trader Bets on 50bps Fed Cut Ahead of Key Data
September 10, 2025

On decentralized betting platform Polymarket, a leading trader known as JustWakingUp is wagering that the Federal Reserve will implement a 50 basis point (bps) rate cut next week—twice the size most of the market expects.

JustWakingUp, the platform’s most active trader with nearly $400 million in total volume and over $2 million in profits, has staked $15,000 on rates falling to 3.75%. The position is already up 3%, with potential winnings around $226,000 if the Fed delivers the jumbo cut.

Currently, most market participants are pricing in a 25 bps reduction, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing a 91% probability for that outcome. However, the odds for a 50 bps cut have risen to nearly 10% after Friday’s August jobs report revealed 911,000 fewer jobs than previously estimated—the largest annual downward revision on record.

Institutions like BlackRock and Standard Chartered have also called for a 50 bps cut. Traders are now closely watching Wednesday’s Producer Price Index and Thursday’s Consumer Price Index. Softer-than-expected readings could fuel expectations for a bigger cut, potentially sending bitcoin and stock markets higher.