Wall Street Analyst Bernstein Notes USDC Market Share “Skyrocketing” for Circle

USDC Supply Soars Past Expectations as Circle Dominates Stablecoin Market
8/9/2025

Circle’s USDC supply has surged to $72.5 billion, outpacing Wall Street broker Bernstein’s 2025 estimates by 25%, highlighting the stablecoin’s growing dominance. Bernstein had projected USDC would reach $74 billion by year-end.

The rise comes amid Hyperliquid’s plans to launch its own stablecoin, which could reduce the decentralized exchange’s reliance on USDC. Despite this potential competition, USDC’s market share has climbed to 30%, up from 28% in Q2, reflecting the token’s strong adoption, according to Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani.

Stablecoins like USDC, pegged to assets such as the U.S. dollar, remain a backbone of crypto markets, providing payment infrastructure and facilitating cross-border transfers. Approximately $5.5 billion of USDC—about 7.5% of its total supply—is currently used as collateral on Hyperliquid. Analysts note that while new entrants pose competition, achieving sufficient liquidity for derivatives markets is challenging, given the importance of execution reliability and volume.

The GENIUS Act is expected to encourage further stablecoin launches. Bernstein emphasized that concerns about Circle’s exposure to interest rate cuts may be overstated, as USDC’s expanding supply positions the firm to benefit from increased digital asset activity. Lower rates could also fuel “risk-on” sentiment, driving further demand for USDC and yield-generating strategies.

Bernstein maintains an outperform rating on Circle, with a $230 price target. Circle shares were up 1.2%, trading near $116 at publication.