Bitcoin Trades Below Fair Value Against Gold Amid Falling Volatility, JPMorgan Notes

JPMorgan Flags Bitcoin as Undervalued Versus Gold Amid Record Low Volatility

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading below its fair value relative to gold as its volatility drops to historic lows, according to a research report by JPMorgan (JPM) released Thursday.

The bank noted that Bitcoin’s six-month rolling volatility has declined from roughly 60% at the start of 2025 to around 30%, the lowest level on record. With volatility approaching gold’s, BTC is now only about twice as volatile, the narrowest ratio ever observed.

JPMorgan analysts said this compression makes Bitcoin increasingly attractive for institutional portfolios. On a volatility-adjusted basis, Bitcoin’s market capitalization would need to rise about 13%, implying a price near $126,000, to align with gold’s $5 trillion in private investment. By the bank’s estimates, Bitcoin is currently undervalued by roughly $16,000 relative to gold, indicating potential upside.

The report, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, attributed part of the trend to rising corporate treasury adoption. Institutional holders now control more than 6% of total Bitcoin supply, a dynamic reminiscent of how central bank quantitative easing historically reduced bond volatility.

Corporate adoption is also bolstered by index inclusion, attracting passive capital inflows. For example, Metaplanet (3350) was upgraded to FTSE Russell’s mid-cap category, while Nasdaq-listed Kindly MD (NAKA) plans to raise up to $5 billion after a $679 million Bitcoin purchase.

New entrants, including ventures spearheaded by Adam Back, aim to rival MARA Holdings’ treasury holdings, echoing the approach popularized by Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR), JPMorgan added.