Investors Brace for Powell as Markets Hold Ground

Bitcoin Holds $112.5K as Traders Brace for Powell’s Jackson Hole Address

Bitcoin remained steady above the $112,500 mark overnight — a key technical level coinciding with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its April-to-July rally — as markets await guidance from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at Friday’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.

The cryptocurrency last rebounded sharply from this level in July. A similar move could materialize if Powell signals a dovish shift, potentially accelerating interest rate cuts. Markets are currently pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a second cut expected by year-end.

Muted Rebound Reflects Cautious Positioning

Despite holding support, bitcoin’s bounce has been limited, a sign of broader caution. Options markets are implying a ±2% move around Powell’s speech, suggesting moderate — but not extreme — volatility.

Orbit Markets’ Pulkit Goyal noted that 25-delta risk reversals are skewed toward puts, indicating increased demand for downside protection. “If Powell sounds more balanced than dovish, we could see retracement pressure,” he said.

Ethereum and Derivatives Activity

Ethereum (ETH), trading near its multi-month uptrend line, could see sharper upside if Powell takes a dovish tone. Futures open interest (OI) for both BTC and ETH rose 1% in the past 24 hours, pointing to active positioning — some of it likely hedging against hawkish risks.

By contrast, altcoins such as SOL, DOGE, LINK, XRP, and ADA saw declining OI, indicating capital outflows. Meanwhile, less-tracked tokens like MAT, ULTIMA, and LUMIA saw OI rise, suggesting selective speculation.

Speculative trading overall has cooled, with volumes in major tokens (excluding BTC) falling over 20%. Traders appear to be sidelined, awaiting macro clarity.

On the CME, OI in ETH futures remains near 2 million ETH, while BTC futures remain subdued below July levels. Options tell a different story: ETH open interest has reached $1 billion — the highest this year — and BTC options hit $4.44 billion, the highest since May.

BTC options on Deribit reflect a 2% expected price swing over the next 24 hours, above the 30-day average of 1.18%. Puts continue to trade at a premium over calls, reflecting persistent downside fears — a trend echoed in tech-heavy ETFs.

OTC network Paradigm recorded mixed block flows, including outright calls, put spreads, and risk-reversal strategies.

Insider Trades Surface in YZY and LIBRA Tokens

On-chain analyst Dethective uncovered apparent insider activity surrounding the launches of YZY and LIBRA tokens. Coordinated wallets reportedly extracted over $23 million through early trades and token sniping strategies.

One wallet acquired $250,000 of YZY at $0.20 — far below the market rate — and flipped it for $1 million in under 10 minutes. It was linked to earlier LIBRA trades where similar tactics netted $9 million and $11.5 million respectively.

These wallets were active only during token launches, deploying large sums instantly — behavior that strongly suggests insider access.

Though speculation has pointed to LIBRA founder Hayden Davis, there is no conclusive evidence tying him to the trades. Analysts warn the structure of such “celebrity coins” may facilitate insider enrichment at retail investors’ expense.

According to Defioasis research, 60% of YZY traders lost money. Of 56,050 active wallets, many were suspected to be bots or fakes. Only 406 wallets profited more than $10,000, and just five cleared over $1 million — most linked to insider trades. One trader reportedly lost more than $1 million in a day.

Ripple, SBI to Launch RLUSD Stablecoin in Japan

Ripple and SBI Holdings announced plans to launch RLUSD, a U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin, in Japan by Q1 2026 under the country’s updated digital asset framework. The initiative will be managed through SBI VC Trade, a licensed platform for electronic payment instruments.

Introduced in December 2024, RLUSD is backed by dollar deposits, short-term Treasuries, and cash equivalents, with monthly audits by third-party firms. Ripple claims the stablecoin is built for compliance and transparency, aimed at bridging traditional finance with decentralized networks.

SBI CEO Tomohiko Kondo said RLUSD would “broaden the stablecoin landscape in Japan,” while Ripple executives framed it as a key step in expanding regulated digital finance in Asia.

The move follows Japan’s approval of its first yen-backed stablecoin earlier this week, reflecting a rapidly evolving regulatory environment supportive of tokenized finance.

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