Bitcoin’s 180-Day Call-Put Skew Hits Two-Year Low, Indicating Growing Bearish Sentiment Ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech
Key Bitcoin (BTC) indicators are signaling a possible shift toward a bearish market as traders await Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
One notable signal is the 180-day call-put skew on Deribit, the largest crypto options exchange by volume and open interest. The skew recently dropped to -0.42, its lowest level since June 2023, according to Amberdata. A negative call-put skew suggests that traders are favoring put options—which protect against price declines—over call options, reflecting heightened caution or bearishness in the medium term.
“BTC longer dated skew flipping into put premium could be a sign of regime shift,” said Imran Lakha, founder of Options Insights, on social media.
This marks a shift after two years of positive skew values, which indicated a bullish bias toward call options. Notably, Bitcoin has only retraced about 8% from its recent record highs above $124,000, yet long-term sentiment has turned bearish.
Lakha added that the price pullback has fueled demand for puts:
“BTC and ETH skews are pulling toward put premium as markets correct. BTC doesn’t show a call premium again until March 2026. The move lower triggered buying of August/September puts around the $110,000 strike. Calls and call spreads are being sold as longs de-risk into Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday.”
Powell’s Speech and Market Outlook
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. Most traders expect Powell to indicate potential rate cuts starting in September.
Nansen analyst Nicolai Sondergaard noted,
“The market broadly expects cuts, so much of that is already priced in. If Powell delivers what’s expected, crypto may see sideways or slightly bearish action—a classic ‘sell the news’ effect. However, if the Fed signals faster or deeper cuts, it could renew risk appetite and trigger a new bullish leg for crypto.”
Wall Street Also Seeks Downside Protection
Similar caution is visible in traditional markets, where traders are buying put options on major tech ETFs to hedge against potential declines.
Jeff Jacobson, head of derivative strategy at 22V Research Group, told Bloomberg,
“Traders are buying ‘disaster’ puts on the Invesco QQQ Trust, which tracks the Nasdaq 100.”
Technical Indicators Point to Bearish Momentum
The Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA), a tool designed to spot trend reversals by comparing short- and long-term moving averages, also signals bearish momentum. Bitcoin’s price has dropped below the GMMA bands, indicating waning bullish control and increasing downside risk.
Other indicators like the MACD histogram support this view, highlighting strengthening bearish momentum.
In summary, Bitcoin’s options market and technical signals suggest increasing caution as traders prepare for a key Fed speech that could shape the market’s next direction.
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