Strategy Slips Under Key 200-Day Moving Average as Bitcoin Outpaces Share Performance

MicroStrategy Breaks Below 200-Day Moving Average as Underperformance Deepens

MicroStrategy (MSTR) slumped to a five-month low on Wednesday, closing around $326 and falling roughly 4% beneath its 200-day moving average of $340 — a level that has historically served as a key technical support.

The 200-DMA is closely followed by traders and institutional investors alike, often signaling whether an asset is in an uptrend or at risk of reversal. MSTR’s dip below the threshold could indicate shifting sentiment and weakening momentum.

This is not the first time the stock has tested this line. In April 2025, amid the “Trump tariff tantrum,” MSTR found support near its 200-DMA before rebounding. A similar pattern emerged during the summer of 2024, when the stock once again bounced off the level before regaining strength. Whether this latest breakdown proves temporary may depend heavily on the performance of bitcoin, which continues to act as a proxy for MSTR given its large BTC holdings.

Chanos Trade Gains Traction

Notably, short-seller Jim Chanos appears to be benefiting from the move. Chanos has taken a short position in MSTR while remaining long bitcoin — a relative-value trade expressing his bearish view on MicroStrategy’s performance versus the underlying asset.

The strategy has begun to pay off. Over the last month, MSTR has declined by 21%, compared to just a 3.5% drop in bitcoin.

Adding to the pressure, technical analyst J.C. Parets noted that the MSTR/IBIT ratio — measuring MSTR against BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF — has plunged to its lowest level in five months. “This one is accelerating quickly,” Parets said, flagging the growing divergence between MicroStrategy and bitcoin.