BTC Still Poised for $140K This Year, but 2026 Could Bring Major Downturn, Expert Warns

Bitcoin on Course for $140K in 2025 Before 2026 Downturn, Says Elliott Wave Analyst

Bitcoin could reach as high as $140,000 by the end of 2025, but investors should brace for a potential bear market in 2026, according to John Glover, CIO at Ledn and a specialist in Elliott Wave analysis.

Despite recent weakness — including a 4% drop over the past week and a dip below $112,000 — Glover believes bitcoin is in the middle of a longer-term bullish wave structure. “We’re firmly on track to hit between $135,000 and $140,000 before year-end,” he told CoinDesk, framing the current decline as a corrective move within a broader uptrend.

Bitcoin’s pullback follows profit-taking near the $120,000 level and a slide in crypto-related equities like Coinbase (COIN) and MicroStrategy (MSTR). Still, Glover points to Elliott Wave signals that suggest the market is completing a third impulse wave (wave iii) of a five-wave cycle — a pattern common in long-term bullish trends.

What Is Elliott Wave Theory?

Developed in the 1930s, Elliott Wave theory maps market behavior using wave-like price patterns based on crowd psychology. A complete cycle includes five waves in the direction of the trend and three corrective waves, often used by technical analysts to forecast future price action.

Glover’s chart shows BTC may reach $130,000 in the coming weeks, followed by a pullback to $110,000 in September (wave iv), before a final rally toward $140,000 (wave v).

But while short-term momentum remains strong, Glover expects that bullishness to fade in 2026.

“Once we reach $140K, the market will be flooded with calls for $250K or $500K bitcoin,” he said. “That’s not my base case — I believe we enter a bear market next year.”

His outlook contrasts with some analysts who believe institutional adoption via ETFs will disrupt bitcoin’s traditional four-year boom-bust cycle. Glover maintains that those cycles remain intact and expects history to repeat.