Wall Street Mixed Ahead of Coinbase Q2 Report, Weighing Trading Decline Against Services Growth

Coinbase Q2 Earnings Preview: Analysts Divided as Trading Slows and Services Rise

Coinbase (COIN) is set to report its second-quarter earnings after Thursday’s market close, and Wall Street remains divided over the company’s outlook. While trading volumes have sharply declined, a growing subscription and services (S&S) business and progress on the regulatory front are keeping sentiment mixed.

Earnings Snapshot

Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect Coinbase to report $1.59 billion in revenue for Q2, up from $1.45 billion in the year-ago period. EPS is projected at $1.25. But beneath the headline figures lies a deeper debate: whether waning spot trading activity will outweigh gains in interest income, stablecoin flows, and blockchain-based services.

Bear Case: Trading Volume Drop Clouds Near-Term Outlook

Barclays analyst Benjamin Buddish maintains a neutral rating on COIN and sees weaker-than-expected performance in trading activity. He projects transaction revenue around $741 million, falling short of the $813.8 million consensus, citing a 43% quarter-over-quarter drop in retail volumes drawn from Robinhood data and broader centralized exchange softness.

“We think Robinhood’s crypto volumes offer a clearer signal of where Coinbase’s retail trading stands,” Buddish wrote in a recent note.

Still, Buddish raised his price target from $202 to $359, reflecting improved market multiples and Coinbase’s more than 100% rally from April lows. However, he remains cautious, citing the balance of near-term trading headwinds against longer-term optimism around crypto legislation like the GENIUS and CLARITY Acts.

Bull Case: Regulatory Wins and Product Expansion Support Upside

Citi analyst Peter Christiansen is more bullish, recently raising his price target to $505 from $270 and reaffirming a buy rating. Christiansen pointed to Coinbase’s inclusion in the S&P 500 and legislative progress on digital assets — particularly the passage of the GENIUS Act on stablecoins and momentum behind the CLARITY Act.

“Investors are increasingly recognizing the value of blockchain innovation tied to real-world applications,” he wrote, citing upcoming initiatives like tokenized equities and new payment products.

While acknowledging softer Q2 trading, Christiansen remains optimistic about growth in Coinbase’s Base network activity, USDC monetization, and the Coinbase One subscription platform.

JPMorgan: Balanced but Cautious

JPMorgan’s Kenneth Worthington also holds a neutral view, assigning a $404 price target for year-end 2025. His valuation includes Coinbase’s $1.4 billion estimated stake in Circle’s stablecoin business, which he excludes from adjusted EBITDA. He also factors in $50 million in costs tied to a Q2 cybersecurity incident.

Worthington believes Coinbase remains a long-term beneficiary of crypto infrastructure growth but emphasized the need for continued innovation — especially in tokenization and payments — to maintain momentum.

“The company’s future will hinge on successful execution and clarity in regulation,” he noted, warning that slowing ETF inflows or increased compliance costs could pressure performance.

Services in Focus

Coinbase’s S&S business continues to act as a stabilizer. The firm had guided revenue from this segment between $600 million and $680 million for the quarter, but Barclays expects it to exceed guidance at $703 million, citing higher BTC prices and rising USDC balances.

Christiansen also flagged new initiatives — including an updated crypto wallet and a crypto-backed credit card with American Express — as future growth drivers for the segment.

Volume Disconnect Remains a Concern

Despite a broader crypto market recovery in 2025, Coinbase’s trading volumes have failed to keep pace. According to The Block, the exchange saw $232 billion in spot volume during Q2, down roughly 40% from the previous quarter. While derivatives activity held up better, it also showed signs of softening by late June.

COIN shares rose 2% on Wednesday to $380, bringing year-to-date gains to 47%. As earnings approach, investor focus will be on how Coinbase balances growth in services and regulatory clarity against persistent weakness in trading activity.

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