Asia Market Brief: Bitcoin Hovers Around $119K Amid Trump’s EU Tariff Deal

Crypto markets gain momentum as on-chain data strengthens and geopolitical tensions ease, with Polymarket traders boosting Bitcoin’s odds of breaking $125K while BTC dominance slips below 61%.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $119,430 early Monday in Asia, up 1.24%, maintaining bullish momentum following a series of institutional milestones and a pivotal trade agreement between the U.S. and the European Union. The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) Index climbed 2.37% to 4,099.18, continuing its recent recovery streak.

This past weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a framework deal in Turnberry, Scotland, setting U.S. tariffs on EU imports at 15%—a notable reduction from the previously threatened 30%. The agreement also secures $600 billion in EU investments for U.S. energy and defense over the next three years, aimed at reducing Europe’s dependence on Russian energy. Meanwhile, tariffs on steel and aluminum remain at 50% for now.

At the same time, Bitcoin’s realized market capitalization—a metric that values coins based on their last movement—surpassed $1 trillion for the first time, according to Glassnode.

Bitcoin remains steady above $118,000 after peaking at a record $122,700 last week. This rally sparked selling by long-term holders but also attracted fresh buyers and capital inflows. Bitcoin’s market dominance dropped slightly to 60.98%, signaling increased interest in altcoins.

On Friday, Galaxy Digital revealed it completed a $9 billion Bitcoin sale for a Satoshi-era investor involving 80,000 BTC, one of the largest single transfers on record. The sale was reportedly tied to estate planning.

The minimal price reaction despite the massive trade highlights Bitcoin’s deep liquidity constraints due to extensive long-term holding. This suggests the market may be ripe for a supply-shock rally capable of absorbing large sales smoothly.

Polymarket now places a 24% probability on Bitcoin reaching $125,000 before July ends, up from 18% earlier in the week, as traders weigh positive macro trends and strong on-chain signals.

Market Overview

• BTC: Trading above $119K amid positive trade developments; CoinGlass data indicates a reduction in short positions.
• ETH: Ether gained 3% to $3,867.76, buoyed by strong fundamentals including 28% staking rate, historically low exchange balances, and rising inflows.
• Gold: Prices dipped for a fourth day, hovering near $3,335 in Asia despite strong year-to-date gains, as easing trade tensions dampen safe-haven demand ahead of the FOMC meeting.
• Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets showed mixed performance as investors awaited news on U.S.–China trade talks.

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