$2B Bitcoin Acquisition by Trump Media Questions Conventional 2025 Peak Expectations

Trump Media & Technology Group’s $2 billion Bitcoin purchase is sending ripples through crypto markets—not just for its size, but for what it signals: a potential turning point in the macroeconomic landscape.

For years, investors have lived by the mantra, “Don’t fight the Fed.” But in crypto, a new adage may be taking shape: “Don’t fight the President.”

The social media company, tied to President Donald Trump, disclosed the major BTC investment on Monday and hinted at plans to expand its position. The move is seen as a challenge to the prevailing belief that Bitcoin’s price peaks roughly a year after its quadrennial halving event.

Historic Patterns Meet Political Disruption

Bitcoin’s halving—where miner rewards are cut in half—has historically set the rhythm for bull and bear markets. The latest halving, in April 2024, reduced rewards to 3.125 BTC. Since then, Bitcoin has surged from around $65,000 to nearly $120,000.

Traditionally, BTC rallies peak 12–18 months post-halving, as seen in 2013, 2017, and 2021, before sliding into bear territory. If that cycle repeats, the current bull run could fade by year-end.

But this cycle may be different.

With a crypto-friendly president in office—and a media company he’s linked to directly entering the market—the usual timelines may no longer apply.

A Political and Strategic Play

Trump Media’s massive BTC buy isn’t just a market move—it’s a macro bet. At the same time, the Trump administration is pushing regulatory reforms seen as bullish for digital assets, including the GENIUS Stablecoin Act.

Pseudonymous macro analyst EndGame Macro posted on X: “No one spends $2 billion on a hyper-volatile asset unless they’re betting on a shift in the entire liquidity regime.”

Trump has repeatedly criticized Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the current 4.25% interest rate, calling it a burden on American households. Many view this BTC purchase as a strategic bet on coming rate cuts and potential U.S. dollar debasement.

“If they didn’t believe the Fed was about to pivot, this would be reckless,” EndGame Macro noted. “If rates stay higher and BTC crashes 40–60%, Trump Media could face severe mark-to-market losses—or worse.”

Wall Street Sees a Pivot Ahead

There are signs the market may be aligning with that view. Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to cut rates three times this year, beginning in September, provided inflation remains contained, according to InvestingLive.

Rate cuts would inject liquidity into markets and loosen financial conditions—fueling appetite for both traditional and crypto risk assets.

In that light, Trump Media’s $2 billion allocation isn’t just a statement of belief in Bitcoin—it’s a calculated wager on broader policy shifts, an easing cycle, and a structural realignment between Washington and Web3.