10x Research Warns Bitcoin’s $588B Range Hides Structural Weakness in Market

Bitcoin’s $588B Trading Range Hides Structural Risks: 10x Research

Bitcoin has remained trapped above the $100,000 level since June, with price action appearing muted — but on-chain data suggests heavy activity beneath the surface that could expose market fragilities, according to 10x Research.

While the world’s largest cryptocurrency has traded in a narrow band between $100,000 and $126,000, roughly 5.9 million BTC — worth around $588 billion — has changed hands within that range, the firm’s founder Markus Thielen said in a note to clients Friday. That volume surpasses the entire market capitalization of Ethereum (ETH), currently about $428 billion.

“Many see bitcoin’s recent consolidation as quiet, but enormous amounts of value are rotating between holders,” Thielen said. “A significant portion now rests with investors or institutions whose positions may be vulnerable to risk controls or internal skepticism.”

Thielen warned that many new holders lack strong conviction, raising the potential for forced selling if prices begin to slide. Roughly 347,000 BTC were transacted near the $101,000 mark, underscoring how tightly activity has clustered near key levels.

Pressure Below $100K

According to 10x Research, a sustained drop below $100,000 could trigger a sharper selloff into what Thielen described as a liquidity “air pocket” around $93,000, where prior demand last concentrated. Such a move could also test the resilience of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which together hold about $60.5 billion in assets with an average entry price near $90,000.

“Those inflows could quickly face pressure if bitcoin breaks lower,” Thielen said, warning that the calm appearance of recent months may be deceptive.

“The volatility you don’t see on the chart is building quietly in the background,” he added.

As of writing, bitcoin was trading near $105,400, according to CoinDesk data.

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