10x Research Flags Waning Bitcoin Momentum as Market Faces August Headwinds

Bitcoin Rally Stalls Below $120K as Seasonal Weakness and Slowing Inflows Weigh: 10x Research

Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling to maintain momentum as it hovers just under the $120,000 mark, with market conditions signaling a potential pullback, according to a new report from 10x Research.

Historically, August has been one of the weakest months for bitcoin, with only three positive performances over the past ten years. Losses in other years have ranged from 5% to 20%, and 10x warns this pattern could repeat in 2025.

A key concern cited in the report is the deceleration in capital inflows to the Bitcoin network. While cumulative inflows this year have surpassed $206 billion — pushing the all-time total above $1 trillion — the 30-day rolling average has slipped from $62.4 billion to $59.3 billion. This decline, according to 10x, may signal the beginning of a broader consolidation phase, echoing similar periods in early and late 2024.

“Despite substantial inflows from corporate treasuries, the price reaction has been underwhelming,” noted Markus Thielen, co-founder and lead analyst at 10x Research. “Time is running out for this cycle to deliver the upside many investors are anticipating.”

The firm now sees downside risk increasing, with BTC potentially falling below $117,000. Support levels are identified around $112,000, with a more significant floor expected between $106,000 and $110,000.

Still, bulls may point to the fact that the few strong Augusts — in 2013, 2017, and 2021 — all occurred in post-halving years during robust bull markets. With 2025 fitting that pattern, some optimism remains that this cycle may yet buck the seasonal trend.