повторing pattern sparks concerns over potential Bitcoin pullback

Bitcoin and Ether remain trapped in a narrow trading range that has persisted for nearly two months, as elevated oil prices and ongoing tensions involving Iran continue to weigh on broader risk sentiment. At the same time, select segments of the altcoin market—particularly AI and privacy tokens—are outperforming.

Bitcoin is trading around $69,000, while Ether is holding near $2,130, both confined within a range established in early February. During this period, Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to sustain moves above the $72,000–$75,000 zone, while finding support between $62,000 and $65,000.

The prolonged consolidation mirrors a similar pattern observed between November and January, which ultimately resolved to the downside. That precedent has led some analysts to caution that the current range could break in a similar fashion.

Macro conditions remain a key overhang. Geopolitical tensions tied to Iran persist despite strong rhetoric from U.S. President Donald Trump, while Brent crude continues to trade around $107 per barrel. Sustained high energy prices could reinforce inflationary pressures, complicating the outlook for risk assets.

Derivatives positioning

Positioning across derivatives markets points to a lack of strong directional conviction. Bitcoin open interest is holding steady at approximately $16.7 billion, indicating little change in speculative exposure.

Funding rates have normalized into a 0%–6% range following a period of negative readings that likely drove a short-covering bounce. Meanwhile, the three-month annualized basis has remained largely unchanged, suggesting institutions are not yet positioning aggressively for a breakout.

Options data shows signs of stabilization. Call participation has increased to 47%, while one-week skew has narrowed to 16%. However, front-end implied volatility remains in backwardation, signaling continued demand for near-term downside protection.

Liquidation data from CoinGlass shows $163 million wiped out over the past 24 hours, with a slight bias toward long positions. Bitcoin accounted for $64 million of liquidations, followed by Ether at $35 million. Binance data highlights $69,500 as a key level to monitor on any upward move.

Altcoin dispersion

While major assets remain range-bound, the altcoin market is showing increasing divergence. Privacy-focused tokens such as Zcash (ZEC) and Dash (DASH) have posted gains, alongside strength in AI-related assets and tokens like FET, PUMP, and RENDER.

The broader CoinDesk 20 index rose modestly by 0.3% but lagged behind both the CoinDesk Memecoin Index and the CoinDesk Computing Select Index, pointing to relative strength in more niche segments.

However, performance across altcoins remains uneven. AI and privacy tokens, along with select assets such as HYPE and ALGO, have held up relatively well, while other areas have continued to weaken. Over the past 90 days, Ethena (ENA) has fallen 66%, with TIA, LDO, SUI, and ARB each declining by more than 50%.

This widening dispersion marks a shift from prior cycles, when altcoins tended to move in tandem. The current environment suggests a more mature market structure, where performance is increasingly driven by fundamentals and use-case differentiation rather than broad speculative momentum.